BY PRAMOD ACHARYA
Aam Aadmi Party has undoubtedly jolted the political landscape of the state. Arvind Kejriwal's visit during this week baffled many and miffed some. AAP aspires to be the political alternative beyond the BJP and the Congress. Can it accomplish this grand purpose after disastrously failing in 2017?
The political instinct of any region is usually bi-polar. Democrats - Republican, Labour - Conservatives, Australian Labour Party - Liberal/ National coalition or the Congress - BJP. Smaller parties normally tend to orbit around these two political shafts or eventually become part of the national fronts led by these principle ideological entities. AAP is unconventional.
We regularly observe territorial forces complementing these national behemoths in a regional space. Rarely do we see an efficient third front. AAP is neither a principal pole nor it can be confined to a definition of the provincial force. They have set their eyes on a mandate that falls between the two. A force that entered the electoral arena espousing the cause of alternate politics is aspiring today to emerge as a formidable political alternative.
Perhaps they envision Goa as electorally fertile territory. Our state is much smaller than Delhi having 1/10th of the population size and the locals peering out for a newer political choice. Precisely this sentiment on the ground has presumably prompted the party to lead the 'change' bandwagon. 'Betrayal week' was an innovative step. Distributing ration with universal coverage was remarkably populist. Arvind Kejriwal announcing free electricity in a debt-ridden state like Goa is an unbelievable promise. Can these tactics earn their votes?
Arvind Kejriwal brings reliability and credibility to the table. But he cannot be AAP's poster boy in Goa. In small constituencies like ours with each MLA or aspirant having a door to door connection with voters, AAP would need at least ten poster boys who can bring 'believability' to the equation; believability not only in terms of winning a constituency but also understanding Goa's socio-political dynamics.
The party requires grassroots candidates. Goa's so-called ‘wave election’ of 2012 could drive the BJP hardly over the simple majority mark despite having a dominant coalition with the MGP and a belligerent face like Manohar Parrikar. Our 'wave elections' bear no equivalence with Delhi. If 21 seats in an assembly of 40 with absolute disgust against the then Congress dispensation is a 'wave election', then imagine what 'non-wave' depicts. Although AAP desires to renovate the 2022 battle for Goa into alternate politics vs political alternatives, our constituency level dynamic compels the dramatis personae in the poll amphitheatre to waltz with localised companions to triumph in individual battles. AAP needs these organic faces with a mesmeric touch for votes. Can they garner 20 such faces apart from the 10 poster boys?
The most critical aspect of the viability of such a political alternative is the vote share. Whose vote share can AAP break into? Everybody believed, considering their evolution over the last five years in the state, the party would dent Congress and especially the minority voter base of the principal opposition. But that wouldn't suffice to win seats. AAP needs to rupture the vote shares of Congress and the BJP as it hopes to mount an assault on both these political parties. Is it possible within the next six months?
Both the major political parties in the state have disillusioned the voter. The post-2017 developments have sickened every voter irrespective of its allegiances. People are undeniably looking for unsullied options. But the choice needs to have the capability to pierce into both the vote shares. AAP at this point is falling short on this count. The party has certainly made the breakthrough into a large section of the Congress voter base. In addition to AAP's aggression to reach out over last one year, Congress' determination to fade out with vacillation has predominantly contributed to this split.
But the BJP's vote share is largely intact. Although its core voter is upset and disenchanted with the influx of Congress heavyweights in the party, it neither finds the impulse or an alternative to move away from their conventional choice. Also, this voter is currently enjoying unbridled power. For this section of votes to move away they need to believe that an alternate dispensation can form a non BJP government in the state despite of having a tough union government at the centre and tilted Raj Bhavan in the state. Can AAP bestow this buoyancy on majority of the BJP voters?
Sudin Dhavalikar meeting Arvind Kejriwal has sent shock waves across the political spectrum. Although both have reaffirmed that there was no converse concerning an alliance, no one would believe that it was Kejriwal hosting Coffee with Sudin on a casual Goan siesta afternoon. Sudin has unabashedly publicized his intention of leading a non BJP, non Congress alliance and his most compatible partner in this pursuit can be the Aam Aadmi Party.
Both these parties not only complement each other in terms of their sphere of influence, they also cover each other's weaknesses and bolster their strengths. Sudin knows the proverbial toil of the soil while AAP has mastered contemporary campaign tactics that can leave the BJP election juggernaut stunned. Moreover, MGP is the only party that can cut into BJP's voter base. With AAP splitting the Congress vote and MGP dividing the BJP base, can they pose a viable challenge to the deep rooted forces of power?
AAP has captured imagination of people in general. The question is can they persuade the voters in specific?
