BY PRAMOD ACHARYA
Sudin Dhavalikar has proposed a non-Congress and non-BJP coalition to take on the current ruling dispensation. He fundamentally believes that no formation developed with the Congress as a vital political power can trump the BJP. But is his confidence that a 'third front' as we are accustomed to calling it, misplaced?
Realistically, who can be a part of this non-aligned front in Goan politics? MGP, AAP, Goa Forward, NCP and others? Or this will be a case of manifold alliances contesting against each other. Most of these political parties do not see eye to eye on multiple issues. Not only ideological but there are also functional discrepancies in their thought process. Can these parties even contemplate coming together and how would their core voters accept such a realpolitik move?
MGP was sacked out of the cabinet by two successive BJP governments. In 2016, then CM Laxmikant Parsekar sent the Dhavalikar brothers packing. In 2019, present CM Pramod Sawant handed a humiliating exit to his newly appointed deputy CMs in what is still considered as a major political coup against his coalition colleagues. If Sudin Dhavalikar still decides to ally with the BJP despite these consecutive embarrassing sackings he will be reduced to a laughing stock. A man who harbours chief ministerial ambitions cannot afford to cut his reputation to size at least in a pre-poll scenario. He is hurt, humiliated and hassled. Next assembly election, he feels, is his opening to return the favour in kind. So he seeks an alliance of strange bedfellows. But can such an arrangement be formidable against BJP's election apparatus and organisational prowess?
I consider Sudin Dhavalikar as a perceptive weathercock. He deserted the Congress alliance in 2011 after realising direction of the wind. He contested the 2017 election with full fervour with a solid estimation that the BJP would not emerge as the single largest party. However, he allied with the BJP in a post-poll scenario knowing full well that Congress would grapple with indecisiveness despite being the single largest party. His every move worked till then. His first miscalculation was probably after Manohar Parrikar's demise. His CM ambitions were crushed and a novice, who never even held even a ministerial berth, was anointed as the CM. He underestimated BJP's collective strength to push back in these situations and kept on backing his brother to contest from Shiroda, against a BJP candidate that resigned from the Congress and joined the BJP, while continuing to stay in the government as deputy CM. Other than that he has read the situations to the best of his ability and advantages.
Now, that same Sudin Dhavalikar is back in his element and he is propagating a 'third' alternative and hopes to make it the 'first choice.
It increasingly looks like that he wants to woo AAP. MGP can contest not more than 18 seats. That is their best play. How many of these seats are capable of winning needs to be seen. MGP clearly understands that they necessitate an alliance partner if more than 30 seats are to be contested. Only that can convince the voter of a credible alternative that can come close to the simple majority mark. Sudin tried the solo formula in 2017 and realised that the populace only gravitates towards an alternative that is apparent to have the best chance to form a government if the tide is against the incumbents. And MGP by contesting 17-18 seats cannot be that option.
MGP must also believe that AAP can be a natural fit for them bearing in mind the constituencies in which both parties hold sway. There is very little overlapping. The question remains will AAP see Sudin as a viable partner and can the MGP be trusted considering their track record?
AAP interestingly has played a fervent pitch for an anti-BJP and anti-Congress political preference. Although the party is insisting that only AAP can be that alternative, they would need a tremendous amount of vote share shift to accomplish that objective. Despite that, they may require an ally that can assist them in the consolidation of majority as well as minority voters. Again, the quest would be to become a front that, at least perceptively, can not only take on the BJP but also emerge victoriously.
Goa Forward, for now, has limited their options by publicly seeking an alliance with Congress and willingness to await their response with a set deadline. Moreover, Vijai Sardesai is already in an alliance with Digambar Kamat in Margao municipality. Certainly, it would be difficult for him to break those ties and shift towards another political dispensation. If they remain in an alliance in Margao but fight assembly elections on separate platforms, it would be similar to Sudin wanting to be the deputy CM yet fighting against the BJP via his brother in Shiroda.
The anti-BJP vote share is completely fragmented. Politics, as it is, makes strange bedfellows. An election creates stranger alliances and abstract allegiances. Interestingly, all these entities fully understand that the bravado they have put on display only benefits the BJP at this point. The fact remains that none of them is in any position to contest at least 35 seats on their own. If they do out of some misplaced audacity, they will only aid the BJP in converting the narrow margin seats into assured victories. And none of them is contesting to get a parking ticket in the opposition.
